AUD / USD: the risks of the real estate market_16/10/2015

Overview and Dynamics

In its report today and the forecast for financial stability in the near future RB of Australia expressed concerns about the situation in the real estate market.
The increase in the cost of housing, the volume of construction and planned construction of apartment buildings, the price of building plots pose downside risks in mortgage lending, which in turn, creates the conditions for lower interest rates in the country to make the cheaper cost of mortgage lending.
However, the main risks to the economy bears the economic slowdown in China, as the largest trading partner and consumer of commodities from Australia.
Recent data on China's foreign trade provided by the customs agency of the country, showed a general decline in turnover in September. Since exports were down 1.1% compared with the same period of last August, after falling by 5.5%, China's imports in September fell by 17.7 %% at the forecast reduction of 15%.
The next meeting of the RBA with the consideration of the prospects of interest rate in the country will be held on November 3.
If the Fed a little earlier, on October 28 will delay raising interest rates in the United States, the Government of Australia and the RBA may be faced with the need for further easing of monetary policy in the country to sustain its economy and export component of revenue.
While there are downside risks to the Chinese economy and the decline in world commodity prices, with AUD / USD will remain under pressure, not excluding short-term correction amid falling value of the US dollar when entering negative data from this country.

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Technical Analysis
After strong rise in the previous week, associated primarily with the receipt of negative economic data from the US, the dynamics of this week, today, seems a turning point and return pair AUD / USD in the medium-term downward trend.
The decline in the Asian session the pair continued to European, almost recoilless movement.
The pair is currently temporarily stabilized near the 0.7275 level (EMA144 on the hourly chart), 07,255 (EMA200 hour EMA50 and 4-hour charts), as well as near the bottom of the ascending correctional channel on 4-hour chart. Break of this level will send the pair to the support level 0.7180 (EMA200 and EMA144 on 4-hour chart) with the immediate goal of 0.7040 (the lower boundary of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Alternative upward movement to the levels of 0.7470 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7500 (23.6% Fibonacci level) is possible only after securing the pair above 0.7380 (highs in October). However, the volatility in the current month's candle was nearly 390 points, for the correction of a sufficiently large quantity, given the recent volatility of the monthly average of 370 points.
Therefore, the growth above the level of 0.7380 until October 28, when they host the meeting of the Fed is unlikely.
On the 4-hour chart indicators OsMA and Stochastic crossed over to the sellers on the daily chart - also unfold on short positions.
Still more preferred short positions.
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Trading recommendations
Sell ​​0.7270, 0.7250. Stop Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7255, 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7100, 0.7040
Buy Stop 0.7340. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7500

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