AUD/USD:Chinese imports decreased significantly in September_13/10/2015

Overview and Dynamics

Despite assurances from the deputy head of the RBA Philip Lowe, with whom he made this morning that Australia's economy "is on the path of gradual improvement, the unemployment rate has stabilized," and "GDP growth will be ... gradually accelerate," and that "the probability of recession is low" , with AUD / USD down during the Asian session. Accelerating the reduction given data of China's foreign trade turnover showed a general decline in September. Exports decreased by 1.1% compared to the same period of last August, after falling by 5.5%, China's imports in September fell by 17.7 %% at the forecast reduction of 15%.

China is the biggest buyer of products from Australia, first of all commodities, and the reduction of imports from Australia could significantly weaken the flow of export revenue to the state budget, which in turn may negatively affect the overall level of GDP. Australia's export-oriented economy in the current situation must be cheaper national currency to replenish the budget. If the Fed will postpone raising interest rates in the United States, the Government of Australia and the RBA may be faced with the need for further easing of monetary policy in the country to maintain its economy. As long as the interest rate in Australia, 2.0%, and the next meeting of the RBA to review its prospects will be held on November 3. But there are still downside risks to the Chinese economy and the decline in world commodity prices.

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Technical Analysis

Reaching the last month highs at 0.7380 in the wake of the general weakening of the US dollar, with AUD / USD today with the start of the trading day is actively reduced. Almost recoilless decline was more than 60 points at the current average daily volatility of 77 points. On the 4-hour chart indicators OsMA and Stochastic crossed over to the sellers on the daily chart is also unfolding in short positions. The pair could not rise to the key resistance level of 0.7470 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and 0.7500 (23.6% Fibonacci level). On the downside, the pair will consistently to levels of 0.7200 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 0.7150 (EMA200 4-hourly chart) and then to at least one year at the level of 0.6910.

Return the pair above the 0.7380 level the pair will return an upward trend in the correction, but it is hardly above the levels of 0.7470, 0.7500.

Still more preferred short.

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​at market. Stop Loss 0.7355. Targets 0.7235, 0.7200, 0.6960, 0.6910

Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7370. Targets 0.7460, 0.7500

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