Brent: the price is below the 50.00 level _05/07/2016

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 49.30. Stop-Loss 49.90. Take-Profit 49.00, 48.30, 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70, 45.00

Buy Stop 50.10. Stop Loss 49.60. Take-Profit 50.70, 51.00, 52.00, 52.80, 53.00, 54.00


Technical analysis

Today started with active drop in oil prices. After the growth of the price above $ 51.00 at the end of last week a barrel of Brent oil from the beginning of this week the price falls, breaking the strong support levels 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% decrease from the level of 65.30 to lows near the 2016 mark of 27.05), 50.00 (psychologically strong level). Price found support near the 49.40 level (EMA144 on 4-hour chart).

If the downward trend will continue this week, the price may well fall to the level of support 49.00 (EMA200 4-hour chart), 48.30 (EMA50 daily chart).

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on 4-hour chart recommend short positions. On the daily, the weekly charts as they unfold on the sale.

As long as the price is within the range between the levels of 47.00 and 50.70 with a median line passing near the support level 49.00, 48.30 (EMA50 daily chart).

The next support levels are close to 47.50 marks (lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart), 47.00 (EMA50 on the weekly chart), 46.20 (Fibonacci level of 50.0%, EMA200 on the daily chart).

As long as the price is above the support level of 48.30, from a technical point of view, a high probability of continued growth within the rising channel on the daily chart the level of resistance and long-range goals of 54.00, 55.00, near which passes EMA144 line on the weekly chart and the top line of the rising channel on the daily chart.

Fixing the prices below the level of 45.40 (EMA144 on the daily chart) can expand upward trend and send the price towards support levels 41.70 (38.2% Fibonacci level), 36.05 (23.6% Fibonacci level), 32.30, 30.00.

So far, the situation is not completely clear, but under pressure from fundamentals look strong position bears.

Support levels: 49.40, 49.00, 48.30, 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70, 45.00, 44.00, 42.50, 41.70

Resistance Levels: 50.00, 50.70, 51.00, 52.00, 52.80


Overview and Dynamics

With the opening of the oil price fell quite sharply. Price fell below the psychologically strong level of 50.00 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.

After rapid growth in global stock markets last week and prices of commodities, including oil, the market moved in a corrective phase. Yesterday in the US celebrated Independence Day, so in the US financial markets were closed.

At the OPEC leadership last week and the representatives of Saudi Arabia stated that the global oil market is moving to the balance of supply and demand.

However, the positive dynamics of oil prices can change quickly in the negative.

Despite the fact that in the United States noted the current decline in oil production (last week in the US Department of Energy reported that oil production in the country fell by 55,000 barrels to 8.622 million barrels per day), the situation of rising prices can change radically.

As reported on Friday in the oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc., in the US the number of oil rigs last week increased by 11 units and reached 341 per unit, which was the most significant weekly increase in the index for six months.

The participants of the oil market are also not yet fully aware of the decision to leave the UK from the European Union.

On Wednesday, 20:30 (GMT) American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on the change in US oil inventories last week. On Thursday at 15:00 US Department of Energy publishes its weekly report on US oil storages and petroleum products.

If the submitted data point to growth stocks, prices will experience more pressure to the downside than show a positive trend in the opposite case.

A number of the fundamental nature of the factors, namely, a renewed increase in the number of active rigs in the United States, the possibility of the US resuming shale oil production, the elimination of disruption of oil supplies from various regions of the world, the continued oversupply of oil in the world, remaining at historic highs, more than 500 million barrels, US crude stocks, grew the risks for the European and world economies due to Brexit, can return the oil market in a downtrend.