USD / CHF: Dollar increases the effect of speech Janet Yellen_09/28/2015

Overview and Dynamics

The US dollar continues to develop an upward trend with the opening of the trading session on Monday amid the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen last week about a possible increase in interest rates before the end of this year.

Together with the dollar becoming cheaper European currencies reduced the price of precious metals, oil, stocks.

The US dollar also rose against the backdrop of the latest data on US GDP in Q2 (3.9% from the previous value of 3.7%).

It seems that the US economy is standing safely on the road to recovery, despite the crisis, the economy and the stock markets of other regions of the world.

Two more news from Europe, which contributed to the strengthening of the dollar against the euro, it is - the past weekend elections in Catalonia, according to which the majority of residents in the region voted for independence from Spain, as well as the scandal around the VW Group in Germany. And since, pair USD / CHF has a high degree of correlation with the pair EUR / USD, the strengthening of the dollar in the EUR / USD pair is accompanied by strengthening and paired with Frank.

This is the last week in September and the first of October, and on the first Friday of the month, that is, October 2 is scheduled to yield data on NFPR in the United States. Expected increase in the number of new jobs in September at 30,000, compared with the previous month.

We also recall that last week came out data on the trade balance in Switzerland in August, which turned out worse than the July figure, according to economists, as a result of the strengthening of the Swiss franc had an impact on reducing the demand from the EU and China for goods Swiss chemical, pharmaceutical and engineering industries.

 According to the latest statistics, retail sales in July, as well as the level of producer prices in August also fell. Thus, inflation in Switzerland decreased, despite the extra soft monetary policy in the country.

The trend of reducing the trade surplus and declining inflation may prompt the Swiss National Bank to further easing of monetary policy in the country and conduct interventions with sales of the franc to weaken the Swiss franc, which, according to the bank significantly overvalued.

Based on the above factors, with high probability, we can conclude that by the end of the week the US dollar will be in the upward trend in European currencies, including the pair USD / CHF.

And, most likely, the US dollar will remain in an upward trend in the market, at least - until the next Fed meeting in October and December.


Indicators and levels

At all time periods with a 4-hour week by OsMA and Stochastic indicators are on the side of the buyers, and the price - above the moving averages (EMA200, EMA144).

The pair is trading in the upper end of the range between the levels of 0.9800 and 0.9525 (EMA200 on the daily chart) with a tendency to further strengthen. In case of breakdown of a range of immediate goals may be the levels of 0.9900 (August highs), 1.0100, 1.0200 (highs of the year).

Sales in these conditions, can be considered only within the corrections and the short-term with the goals of not less than the strong levels of support (EMA50, 144, 200 on the daily chart), with corresponding prices 0.9665, 0.9570, 0.9535. They are the same, as well as the additional levels of 0.9740, 0.9700 is recommended to consider the opportunity to enter long positions with the support of the indicators.

Support levels: 0.9740, 0.9700, 0.9665, 0.9570, 0.9535

Resistance levels: 0.9800, 0.9900


Trading recommendations

Buy Limit 0.9740, 0.9700, 0.9690. Stop 0.9650. Targets 0.9800, 0.9850, 0.9890.

Sell ​​Stop 0.9620. Stop 0.9670. Targets 0.9570, 0.9530.